“Predictable risks and identifiable issues don’t slip between the cracks”

Early warnings of heatwaves or droughts can reduce deaths and safeguard the lives and livelihoods of those most at risk from extreme weather.

As human-driven climate change continues to propel more frequent erratic weather patterns, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is leveraging its wide network of scientific partnerships to provide early, accurate forecasts of extreme heat.

“FEWS NET’s strength comes from working as a team. Scientists and regional experts are constantly working together to identify where advancements in satellite and on-ground monitoring, climate and hydrological modeling, and impact analyses can be achieved and usefully implemented,” Laura Harrison, specialist and operations analyst for the UCSB Climate Hazards Center, said. “In this kind of space, predictable risks and identifiable issues don’t slip between the cracks.”

For decades, FEWS NET scientists working across U.S. agencies and in regional hubs worldwide have used a convergence of evidence to monitor and forecast droughts. 

“Underlying this is a drive to understand the causes and the warning signs of harmful precipitation and temperature extremes,” Harrison noted.

Before a season begins, FEWS NET scientists use climate model probabilistic forecasts and historical observations to develop a "most likely" scenario for a particular region. Forecasters identify areas with higher-than-normal chances of experiencing above – or below – average seasonal precipitation and temperatures and compare previously observed conditions with current expectations.

During El Niño years, identifying and illustrating these forecasted outcomes becomes even easier.

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the best source of predictability for long-range seasonal forecasts for many regions of the globe,” Harrison explained. “In a year when an El Niño is expected to develop, and you have these baseline changes in climate, you’re going to get pretty high agreement amongst the models in some areas that there are increased odds of above-normal temperatures developing.” 

Tamuka Magadzire, FEWS NET’s regional scientist for Southern Africa, said he and his colleagues saw their first warning signs of the current El Niño as far back as March 2023.

By the summer of 2023, FEWS NET began briefing global partners about the potential for above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall in Southern Africa associated with El Niño and compounded by record-breaking climate change-driven heat. These briefings also included projected impacts on crops, livestock, and food security through mid-2024.

WATCH: FEWS NET El Niño Briefing 

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Extreme heat increases the chance of crop failures and threatens people, their livelihoods, and livestock. Above-average air temperatures increase evaporative demand, which can worsen the impacts of moisture stress on crop and pastoral growth. Physiological heat impacts on crops can reduce grain quality and disrupt critical pollination stages. Warmer temperatures can lead to more crop-damaging pests. High temperatures in snow-covered areas can result in faster-melting snowpack, flash flooding, and earlier reliance on irrigation resources. For human health, sweltering heat and high humidity are particularly dangerous.

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FEWS NET’s warnings came in time for governments and relief agencies to develop contingency plans with the goal of mitigating the effects of extreme heat and drought on lives and livelihoods.

“Based on the forecasts by several climate forecasting centers and some of the messaging from FEWS NET, several partners, including UN FAO, undertook several anticipatory actions in the region,” Magadzire explained. “These included early warning messaging, distribution of drought-tolerant seeds, farmer training, rehabilitation of irrigation equipment, and cash transfers.”

Magadzire and Harrison, who participated in a USAID crop tour across Southern Africa in February and March 2024, described agricultural conditions as “grim” due to record-breaking dry conditions and unusual heat during a key time of crop development.

In late February, the President of Zambia declared a national emergency due to severe drought driven by the current El Niño and climate change. In late March, Malawi followed suit when its president declared a state of emergency due to drought in 23 of its 28 districts.

The latest precipitation data shows widespread areas received only half of typical rainfall during the past two months in  Zambia, Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, Mozambique, central and northern Namibia, northern and eastern Botswana, southeastern Angola, and parts of South Africa.

Monitoring and forecasting climate extremes and their impacts

As the world continues to experience the impacts of human-driven climate change, Harrison explained that we should prepare for more extreme weather events.

“Climate change is loading the dice,” she said. “It is now more possible to get extremely high air temperatures and warm sea surface temperatures. We should be prepared to see more frequent damages to agriculture, such as in summer season rainfed cropping areas and in areas where El Niños frequently elevate regional temperatures.”

Looking to the future, Magadzire and Harrison explained that FEWS NET will continue using its wealth of resources to incorporate warning signs of extreme heat up to nine months ahead of time. 

“Use of short-range, skillful heat wave forecasts and tracking of high-impact events will remain important,” Harrison said. “Climate change-related trends and projected heat scenarios should also be employed for exploring risk and adaptation possibilities.” 

FEWS NET’s monitoring and forecasting incorporates data and information from a variety of sources, including:

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s weekly weather hazards and Africa heat wave forecasting, NOAA Physical Science Laboratory climate data and experimental forecasts,
• UCSB CHC’s CHIRTSmax historical temperature data and CHIRPS precipitation
• Precipitation and temperatures predicted for upcoming days to weeks from GEFS, ECMWF, and multi-model SubX systems,
• Ground-based station data, including 3D-printed automatic weather stations (3D-PAWS), 
• eVIIRS satellite land surface temperatures and more agroclimatic monitoring resources available via the USGS’s Early Warning Explorer and FEWS NET Data Portal,
• Anticipated impacts on soil moisture and streamflow from NASA models that use observed and forecast precipitation and temperatures
• CHC and the University of Maryland’s machine learning experimental crop yield forecast systems that track seasonal weather conditions, including potential crop-damaging heat
• GEOGLAM Crop Monitors with current and forecast agroclimatic conditions

To improve short-term temperature forecasts, Magadzire explained that it will be crucial to continue increasing the coverage of ground-based weather station networks, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where meteorological agencies are often constrained by the high costs associated with purchasing and maintaining traditional weather monitoring equipment.

An initiative to expand the use of 3D-PAWS and train meteorological departments to fabricate and install weather stations independently is expected to strengthen monitoring and forecasting.

“The ability to forecast accurately is tied in very closely with your ability to get accurate, current observations and conditions,” Magadzire said. “As 3D-PAWS technology becomes more mainstream and we have more meteorological agencies developing, producing, and using these stations, we expect that we will get more temperature observations uploaded to the forecasting community, which is then going to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts for temperature.”

As USAID continues to develop “innovative solutions to lessen the impacts of extreme heat events and increase climate preparedness plans for all,” FEWS NET remains committed to providing high-quality, reliable forecasts of extreme heat.

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