COVID-19 Modeling and the Crop Cycle
The effects of COVID-19 go well beyond the initial acute health impacts into prolonged repercussions on the economy, employment, poverty levels, safe water access, food security status, crop production, and much more. In this analysis, we looked at whether projections of COVID-19 case totals in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) overlapped with key phases in the crop production cycle to understand where, when, and on which important crops COVID-19 could take a toll. From this work, we can better inform our thinking on where to focus on Feed the Future programming, estimate which areas will be hit hardest next, and whether COVID-19 impacts will affect crops that are significant food sources, income generators, or both. Combined with data on the demographics of value chain actors involved in each affected crop, we could also see whether the impacts are projected to disproportionately impact women, smallholder farmers, small businesses, and other already-marginalized groups.
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